Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
